The Paper Dragon’s Power Play is getting desperate

Article by J. Salazar

Published on August 27, 2026 06:00AM

Manila, Philippines — Recent naval maneuvers by China and Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan, coupled with intensified Chinese maritime pressure around Filipino features in the West Philippine Sea, reveal a pattern of strategic posturing that prioritizes intimidation over genuine regional stability. ¹ ²

Naval Drills and Regional Tensions

In mid-August 2026, the Chinese and Indonesian navies conducted joint “navigation exercises” and at-sea replenishment drills in sensitive waters east of Taiwan, an area long regarded as international waters under maritime law. ¹ ³ ⁸ Beijing’s defense ministry described the drills as efforts to “enhance joint operational capabilities” and “safeguard regional peace and stability,” but independent analysts and regional observers classify them as gray-zone tactics aimed at normalizing a military presence around Taiwan and signaling strength to international allies. ¹ ⁴ ⁹

Taipei expressed concern over the drills, warning that such activities risk escalating tensions and undermining the autonomy that the people of Taiwan have maintained for decades. ⁴ While Indonesia officially recognizes Beijing diplomatically, Jakarta continues to sustain robust unofficial economic and labor ties with Taiwan, including hosting more than 300,000 Indonesian workers on the island, complicating any narrative of a unified front against Taiwanese self-governance. ¹

Sustained Pressure in the West Philippine Sea

Meanwhile, in the West Philippine Sea near the Philippines, Chinese coast guard, naval, and air assets have maintained and sustained pressure around key Filipino features, particularly Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) and Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal). ² ⁵ Between July 24 and August 7, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) monitored 18 Chinese military and coast guard vessels in the area, including eight coast guard ships near Ayungin Shoal and multiple vessels around Bajo de Masinloc. ²

Chinese state media reported joint naval and air combat patrols around Bajo de Masinloc, accompanied by law-enforcement exercises and announcements of stronger control measures, which Philippine officials have dismissed as unable to alter the country’s legal maritime entitlements under international law. ⁵ ⁶ ⁸ Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, AFP spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, emphasized that military activities or demonstrations do not change the legal status of maritime features or the Philippines’ rights under the 2016 arbitral ruling. ⁶

Diplomatic and Strategic Implications

The dual focus on Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea underscores Beijing’s broader strategy of using naval drills and maritime patrols to assert expansive territorial claims, despite limited international recognition. ¹ ⁷ Australia recently joined the Philippines in condemning China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea, citing dangerous tactics such as water-cannon attacks and ramming incidents that risk escalation and miscalculation. ⁷

Regional partners and international observers continue to stress the importance of freedom of navigation and adherence to international maritime law, warning that coercive tactics undermine trust and stability in the Eastern Seas. ¹ ⁷

Fact Check

• Sovereignty and Governance: The Chinese Communist Party has never exercised jurisdiction or governing authority over Taiwan, which operates as a self-governing democracy with its own constitution, elected leadership, military, and economy. ¹ ⁴

• International Waters vs. Sovereign Claims: Waters east of Taiwan largely consist of international waters, and Beijing’s expansive territorial claims are not broadly recognized under international maritime law. ¹ ³

• Military Posturing vs. Peacekeeping: Independent defense analysts classify Beijing’s maneuvers as gray-zone tactics and strategic intimidation, not peacekeeping. ¹ ⁴

• Diplomatic Reality: Indonesia maintains critical unofficial economic ties with Taiwan, complicating Beijing’s narrative of a unified front. ¹

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Notes:

¹ Reuters. China, Indonesia navies to hold drills in sensitive waters to ... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-indonesia-navies-hold-drills-sensitive-waters-east-taiwan-2026-08-11

² Tribune. AFP monitors 18 Chinese vessels in WPS. https://tribune.net.ph/2026/08/11/afp-monitors-18-chinese-vessels-in-wps

³ Bloomberg. China Plans First Naval Drills With Indonesia East of Taiwan. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/china-indonesia-plan-joint-exercise-in-waters-east-of-taiwan

⁴ Aljazeera. China and Indonesia's joint naval drills anger Taiwan. https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/13/china-and-indonesias-joint-naval-drills-anger-taiwan

⁵ WPS. West Philippine Sea Situation Report (SITREP): July 24–August 7, 2026. https://wps.news/2026/08/08/west-philippine-sea-situation-report-sitrep-july-24-august-7-2026

⁶ Headline Zambales. AFP monitors 48 Chinese ships in WPS in July. https://headline-zambales.com/2026/08/04/afp-monitors-48-chinese-ships-in-wps-in-july

⁷ Daily Tribune. Australia backs Phl’s WPS stand.https://tribune.net.ph/2026/08/07/australia-backs-phls-wps-stand

⁸ CGTN. China, Indonesia wrap up naval navigation exercise in waters east of Taiwan Island. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-08-12/China-Indonesia-wrap-up-naval-navigation-exercise-1PyuXjPcF4Q/p.html

⁹ Antaranews. China, Indonesia plan naval drill in waters east of Taiwan ... https://en.antaranews.com/news/426717/china-indonesia-plan-naval-drill-in-waters-east-of-taiwan-island⁩