Not Just There: How the Middle East War Reaches the WPS

Article by Marie D.

Published on March 26, 2026 09:47 PM

The ongoing Middle East war, involving US-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions, has limited direct effects on the West Philippine Sea (WPS) so far, primarily through economic pressures rather than military shifts. ¹ ² ³

Economic Pressures

Skyrocketing oil prices from the conflict, potentially reaching $100–$140 per barrel, threaten Philippine GDP growth, pushing it below 5% in 2026 due to higher inflation, production costs, and reduced remittances from the region. ⁴ ⁵ These surges have prompted energy cuts for officials and could widen the current account deficit to 4% of GDP, straining fuel-dependent maritime operations nationwide. ⁶ ⁷

Military Operations

Philippine Navy patrols and operations in the WPS remain unaffected by fuel cost hikes, with officials confirming all mandated activities continue despite the crisis. ¹ No direct link exists between the war and monitored increases in Chinese vessels (e.g., 62 in February 2026), as Beijing's presence persists independently. ³ ⁸

Strategic Risks

Analysts warn the US focus on the Middle East could create an Indo-Pacific security vacuum, potentially allowing China to escalate in the WPS without strong deterrence. ⁹ However, Philippine-US joint activities, like sails near Scarborough Shoal, continue, and no heightened Chinese aggression tied to the war has been confirmed. ¹⁰ ¹¹ OFW safety in war-risk zones like the Strait of Hormuz adds indirect maritime concerns for Filipino seafarers.¹²

__________________________________________________________ Notes:

¹ Navy: WPS ops unaffected by oil crisis amid Middle East crisis https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/979433/wps-operations-oil-crisis/story/

² Middle East Special Issue: March 2026 https://acleddata.com/update/middle-east-special-issue-march-2026

³ Philippine Navy sees no link between Middle East conflict and ... https://republikanews.org/2026/03/09/philippine-navy-sees-no-link-between-middle-east-conflict-and-increase-of-chinese-ships-in-wps/

⁴ Middle East war fallout: Sub-5% Philippine growth may persist this year - Inquirer Business https://business.inquirer.net/578694/middle-east-war-fallout-sub-5-philippine-growth-may-persist-this-year

⁵ Gulf conflict poses direct economic risk to Philippines https://globalnation.inquirer.net/312040/gulf-conflict-poses-direct-economic-risk-to-philippines

⁶ Philippines among 'most bruised' as Middle East conflict drives oil surge - Manila Bulletin https://mb.com.ph/2026/03/12/philippines-among-most-bruised-as-middle-east-conflict-drives-oil-surge

⁷ Philippines orders energy cuts in response to Middle East war https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/06/philippines-orders-energy-cuts-middle-east-war-fuel-prices

⁸ PH Navy: 62 Chinese ships spotted in WPS features in February 2026 https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/978525/ph-navy-62-chinese-ships-spotted-in-wps-features-in-february/story/

⁹ US risks losing focus on Indo-Pacific amid Israel-Iran war, analysts say https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2025/06/22/680663/us-risks-losing-focus-on-indo-pacific-amid-israel-iran-war-analysts-say/

¹⁰ West Philippine Sea Weekly: Patrols, Messaging, and Cooperative Sail https://wps.news/2026/01/30/ongoing-conflict/

¹¹ Chinese activities in the West PH Sea seen to continue in ... https://www.balitangmarino.com/post/chinese-activities-in-the-west-ph-sea-seen-to-continue-in-2026-navy-spox

¹² Filipino seafarers may refuse sailing in Middle East war-risk zones https://filipinotimes.net/latest-news/2026/03/09/filipino-seafarers-may-refuse-sailing-in-middle-east-war-risk-zones-dmw/