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Philippines Reframes South China Sea as Shared Regional Vulnerability in New ASEAN Strategy

Article by J. Salazar

Published on June 17, 2026 11:30AM


MANILA — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. did not dwell on warships or water cannons when he rose to speak at the country's Independence Day celebrations on Friday. Instead, the president signaled a strategic shift in how the Philippines addresses the South China Sea dispute: recasting the waterway not as an arena of territorial conflict, but as a shared vulnerability that threatens every ASEAN nation. ¹ ²


The New Diplomatic Approach


During his June 12 speech at the Vin d'Honneur in Malacañang, Marcos invoked the ASEAN Maritime Leaders' Declaration, signed last month at the bloc's 48th summit in Cebu. The declaration established a unified regional commitment to uphold international law, ensure freedom of navigation, and protect the marine environment. ¹


“ASEAN is unlikely to adopt a collective position on contested South China Sea claims,” said political analyst Sylwia Monika Gorska, a doctoral student of international relations at the University of Central Lancashire. “Not because the issue is unimportant, but because consensus, sovereignty, and non-interference limit how far the bloc can go on territorial questions.”


The declaration gives Manila another route, Gorska added. It keeps the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea politically visible by moving the discussion into areas where ASEAN can act, fisheries, energy corridors, undersea cables, and trade routes, without asking the bloc to decide the legal dispute itself. ¹


What the Declaration Omits


Mark Manantan, a former consultant at the Asia Society Policy Institute with a PhD in international relations, noted the declaration's sophistication lay partly in what it omitted. China is never named, and no enforcement mechanism exists. Yet “it does raise the political cost of predatory behaviour and create legitimate entry points for external partners – Quad states, the EU, others – to engage through,” he said.


For the Philippines, this approach is particularly relevant. As one of the ASEAN members most directly affected by tensions, Manila has an interest in strengthening regional mechanisms that reduce risks associated with continuing disputes. ¹


“Skin in the Game” for Every ASEAN Member


Presenting maritime tension as a resilience problem rather than a legal or territorial one means every ASEAN member suddenly has “skin in the game,” according to Manantan. “Framing the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) as a bilateral Philippines-China dispute keeps Manila isolated and lets everyone else hedge. Reframing it as a regional resilience question forces every member state to reckon with their own exposure,” he explained.


The declaration also marked concrete institutional steps forward, establishing an ASEAN Maritime Centre in the Philippines and formalizing the ASEAN Coast Guard Forum. ¹ ⁴


Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South programme at the Quincy Institute, described these developments as a meaningful upgrade from the bloc's December 2023 foreign ministers' statement, which amounted to little more than a call for “self-restraint.”


Two-Track Strategy


Defense analyst Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in Abu Dhabi, was skeptical that the ASEAN declaration would galvanize collective security action. He suggested Manila is ultimately “more focused on building defence partnerships with powers from outside the region” such as Japan and Canada. ⁵


Manantan cautioned against reading the declaration in isolation. Global fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has hit the Philippines hard, 98 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East region, and a resulting national energy emergency pushed Marcos towards Beijing, publicly proposing joint energy exploration in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea. ¹


“Marcos is running two (2) tracks at once, multilateral norms through ASEAN, bilateral pragmatism with Beijing. That's hedging under real pressure,” Manantan said.

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Notes:


¹ Marcos sees stronger maritime cooperation under ASEAN declaration. GMA Network. June 11, 2026. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/991293/marcos-sees-stronger-maritime-cooperation-under-asean-declaration/story/


² Philippines not in business of instigating wars, says President Marcos. Channel News Asia. JUne 23, 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-president-ferdinand-marcos-jr-4430041


³ Philippines 'cannot yield' its South China Sea position, president says. Reuters. July 22, 2024. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Philippines-cannot-yield-its-South-China-Sea-position-president-says-47432790/



⁵ Philippines to Vigorously Defend Territory, President Says. Arabia News (AWSAT). 2026. https://english.aawsat.com/world/5021916-philippines-vigorously-defend-territory-president-says

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