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A Decade After The Hague Victory… Now What?

Article by J. Salazar

Published on April 22, 2026 12:37PM


Nearly 10 years after the Philippines scored a landmark victory against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, Manila has yet to return to that or any international tribunal to claim compensation for the sustained harassment and exclusion of Filipino fishermen from Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, a key fishing ground in the West Philippine Sea (WPS). ¹ ² ³ Former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio has repeatedly pushed for a fresh damages case, arguing that the 2016 arbitral award already established that China’s blockade of traditional Filipino fishing activities there was illegal and that Beijing should now pay. ³ ⁴ ⁵


In the 2016 decision under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the PCA tribunal found that Scarborough Shoal, as a high‑tide feature, is entitled only to a 12‑nautical‑mile territorial sea, not a full 200‑nautical‑mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). ² ³ ⁵ Crucially, the tribunal affirmed that both Chinese and Filipino fishermen have “traditional fishing rights” in the area, and that China, by deploying its official vessels after May 2012, unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from exercising those rights. ¹ ² ³ The award also invalidated China’s “nine‑dash line” historic‑rights claim over nearly the entire South China Sea, and clarified that Recto (Reed) Bank and other gas‑rich features lie within the Philippines’ 370‑kilometer EEZ. ² ⁶ ⁷


Despite these findings, the tribunal did not rule on sovereignty over the shoal itself, leaving Beijing free to continue treating it as de facto Chinese territory. ² ³ ⁸ This has allowed Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels to maintain a persistent presence, effectively barring Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen from the area while stopping short of formally acknowledging Manila’s arbitral‑backed rights. ³ ⁵ ⁹


Speaking at the turnover ceremony of the 1875 Carta General del Archipielago Filipino to the National Library of the Philippines, Carpio reiterated his long‑standing recommendation that the government file a new case before an arbitral tribunal, this time focused squarely on damages for the loss of livelihood suffered by Filipino fisherfolk blocked from Scarborough Shoal. ⁴ ⁵ ¹⁰ He stressed that the 2016 award explicitly recognizes the shoal’s territorial sea as a common fishing ground, so China’s continued prevention of Philippine fishing constitutes a clear breach of UNCLOS. ¹ ² ⁵


“We should be able to fish there, but the Chinese have prevented us and the Vietnamese from fishing … So it’s a clear case,” Carpio stressed, lamenting that his proposal has not been taken up by any administration. ⁴ ⁹ He argued that a damages case could quantify the economic losses to small‑scale fisher communities and, symbolically, force Beijing to confront the legal consequences of its non‑compliance, even if enforcement remains a political hurdle. ² ⁴


Diplomatic and political calculations have so far outweighed legal bravado. Officials from successive Philippine governments have preferred “quiet diplomacy” or bilateral negotiations with Beijing, wary of estranging China at a time when Manila is already locked in a tense coast‑guard standoff across the WPS. ⁶ ⁷ ⁸ The 2016 award, while legally binding under UNCLOS, has no automatic enforcement mechanism, and China has refused to recognize it, insisting instead on its “10‑dash line” as its de‑facto maritime boundary. ² ³ ⁸


This lack of enforcement has also stifled exploration at Recto Bank, where an estimated 3.5–4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas lie within the Philippines’ EEZ. ⁵ ⁶ ⁷ Despite the arbitral ruling that removed legal doubt over ownership of the resource, Carpio has repeatedly criticized the state’s lack of political will to proceed with drilling, especially as gas prices rise and the Malampaya field, currently the country’s main offshore gas source, faces declining reserves. ⁵ ⁶ “Malaysia and Indonesia, even amid disputes, have already developed their offshore hydrocarbons,” he noted, underscoring that Manila’s hesitation is more about domestic risk appetite than international law. ⁵ ⁶ ⁷

Even as China ignores the award, the PCA ruling has quietly reshaped the regional security picture. The United States and its allies cite the 2016 decision when conducting freedom‑of‑navigation operations and naval drills in the WPS, insisting that their activities are lawful within the Philippines’ EEZ and not subject to Beijing’s “10‑dash line” quasi‑national boundary. ² ³ ¹⁰ Carpio has pointed out that without the arbitral win, such exercises would be far more vulnerable to Chinese legal and diplomatic counter‑claims, which often frame the South China Sea as sovereign Chinese territory. ² ³


At the same time, the Philippine Coast Guard has stepped up deployments of ships and aircraft to monitor reported Chinese harassment near Panatag, including alleged water‑cannon use and “unsafe” maneuvers against smaller Philippine vessels. ³ ⁹ These incidents, Manila argues, prolong the cycle of intimidation that keeps Filipino fisherfolk away from their traditional waters, reinforcing Carpio’s argument that without a clear damages claim, the human cost of the ruling’s non‑enforcement remains largely invisible. ² ⁴ ⁹

Legal experts say the Philippines could, in theory, pursue another UNCLOS‑based arbitration under the same PCA framework, this time focusing on sustained interference with fishing rights and the failure to compensate affected communities. Alternatively, Manila could seek a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), though this would first require a special agreement with China, a diplomatic prospect that remains extremely remote. ² ³


For now, the 2016 victory remains a “paper win” in practical terms, it has bolstered the legal standing of Manila, Washington, and other claimants, but it has not re‑opened Panatag Shoal’s waters to Philippine fishermen or turned Recto Bank’s gas reserves into a functioning national resource. ² ³ ⁷ As Carpio put it, “international law is not perfect,” yet the decade‑long gap between the ruling and a concrete damages claim underscores not so much a flaw in the law as a persistent lack of political will in Manila to press its full rights. ² ⁴ ⁵

____________________________________________________________ Notes:


² Failing or Incomplete? Grading the South China Sea Arbitration https://amti.csis.org/failing-or-incomplete-grading-the-south-china-sea-arbitration/


³ Case Brief on the South China Sea Arbitration between ... https://rsilpak.org/2017/case-brief-on-the-south-china-sea-arbitration/


⁴ Carpio pushes new case vs China over fishing rights - Inquirer.net https://www.inquirer.net/470854/carpio-pushes-new-case-vs-china-over-fishing-rights/


⁵ 'Secure Reed Bank now.'—Justice Carpio - University of the Philippines https://up.edu.ph/secure-reed-bank-now-justice-carpio/




⁸ Arbitral PH vs China: A colossal deception - Rigoberto Tiglao - https://rigobertotiglao.com/2019/12/26/arbitral-ph-vs-china-a-colossal-deception


⁹ Philippine Fishermen Netted by South China Sea Geopolitics Over Scarborough Shoal: ‘We Are Always Being Harassed’ https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/philippine-fishermen-netted-south-china-sea-geopolitics-over-scarborough-shoal-we-are


¹⁰ Tag: Scarborough Shoal - Justice Antonio T. Carpio https://www.justiceantoniotcarpio.com/tag/scarborough-shoal/

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