Latest Updates on Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas) Resupply Missions

Article by James Salazar

Published on March 12, 2026 7:16 PM

Recent resupply operations to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas) have been conducted without major physical confrontations, indicating a relative de-escalation compared to the violent encounters recorded in mid-2024. Nevertheless, subtle forms of interference and persistent regional tensions continue to be observed in the operational environment. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) successfully executed rotation and resupply (RoRe) missions in January and March 2025, followed by another mission in September 2025, ensuring the sustained logistical support of personnel stationed aboard the grounded vessel. ¹

Comparable patterns of maritime harassment involving Chinese maritime forces have also been documented in other areas of the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea. Notably, on August 11, 2025, a maritime incident occurred near Panatag / Bajo de Masinloc Shoal (Scarborough) involving a China Coast Guard vessel and a People’s Liberation Army Navy warship. Reports indicate that the two (2) vessels collided while maneuvering in pursuit of a Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel operating in the vicinity. The incident underscores the elevated operational risks associated with aggressive maneuvering and close-proximity maritime operations conducted during interdiction or shadowing activities in contested waters. ²

Current Operational Status and the "Provisional Understanding"

The Philippines and China agreed in July 2024 to a provisional arrangement to de-escalate tensions following a violent confrontation on June 17, 2024, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels boarded Philippine ships and injured Filipino personnel. In January 2025, both sides agreed to continue the indefinite implementation of this arrangement, acknowledging its "positive outcomes" in sustaining de-escalation without prejudicing their respective national positions. ³

Key operational details:

• Missions occur approximately every two (2) months to rotate stationed troops and deliver provisions to the marines aboard the BRP Sierra Madre. ⁴

  
  

• Operations are conducted jointly by the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine Coast Guard. ⁵

  
  

• Despite the agreement, public disagreements persist regarding the terms, with China claiming the Philippines must provide prior notification and submit to inspection, a claim the Philippines denies. ⁶

Persistent Low-Level Interference and Escalation

While overt physical obstructions like water-cannoning and ramming have decreased, covert interference continues. In November 2024 and September 2025, Philippine officials reported that Chinese government vessels jammed communications throughout hour-long resupply operations, though the missions successfully delivered food, fuel, and personnel. ⁷

Tensions showed signs of resurfacing by August 2025, with the Philippine military reporting a surge in Chinese activity, including the deployment of five (5) Chinese Coast Guard vessels and 11 fast boats upgraded with mounted weapons, including heavy crew-served machine guns. This suggests that while the "provisional understanding" holds for now, the underlying capacity for escalation remains high. ⁸

Regional Context: Escalation at Panatag / Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough) Shoal

The relative calm at Ayungin Shoal stands in stark contrast to intensifying gray zone tactics elsewhere in the West Philippine Sea, particularly at Panatag / Bajo de Masinloc. On February 28, 2026, the Philippine Coast Guard monitored Chinese Maritime Militia vessels (bow numbers 3103 and 3303) blocking and driving away Filipino fishermen from the traditional fishing ground. ⁹

In response, the PCG deployed the BRP Cabra along with 10 vessels from the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources to aid more than 30 Filipino fishing boats, providing them with fuel subsidies to extend their stay despite harassment. The incident revealed escalating sophistication in Chinese coercion: ¹⁰

• Fishermen reported an unidentified drone monitoring their movements, suggesting enhanced surveillance integration for maritime domain awareness and psychological pressure.

  
  

• Authorities confirmed that Starlink internet connections were cut off within 12 nautical miles of the shoal, disrupting communications for Coast Guard vessels approaching the area. ¹¹

National Security Adviser Eduardo Año reaffirmed that transparency remains the cornerstone of the Philippines' strategy, a policy he advanced in 2023 as Chair of the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea. "Central to our national strategy is the imperative of transparency in addressing China's gray zone maneuvers," Año stated, emphasizing that exposing these tactics is vital to protecting sovereign rights. ¹²

Strategic Implications

The provisional arrangement at Ayungin Shoal has achieved its immediate objective of preventing violent confrontations, allowing for consistent logistical support to the BRP Sierra Madre. However, the continued signal jamming, the surge in armed Chinese boats in late 2025, and the displacement of coercive pressure to Scarborough Shoal indicate that underlying tensions remain unresolved. ¹³

The contrast between the two shoals highlights a strategic shift, while Manila and Beijing manage a fragile status quo at Ayungin through secret diplomacy, China continues to test Philippine resolve at Panatag / Bajo de Masinloc Shoal using advanced gray zone tactics like drone surveillance and electronic warfare. The success of the Philippines' transparency initiative in exposing these actions, as advocated by NSA Año, remains critical to countering narratives that might legitimize unlawful claims. ¹⁴

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Notes:

¹ Basilio, K.C.L. (2025) Philippines completes resupply at Second Thomas shoal, BusinessWorld Online. Available at: https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2025/04/09/665108/philippines-completes-resupply-at-second-thomas-shoal/ (Accessed: 02 March 2026).

² Mendoza, J. (2025) Chinese ships collide off Scarborough Shoal; PH Coast Guard offers aid, INQUIRER. Available at: https://www.inquirer.net/452305/fwd-break-chinese-ships-collide-off-scarborough-pcg-offers-help/ (Accessed: 02 March 2026).

³ Del Callar, M. (2025) West PH Sea: China, PH agree to continue RoRe accord for Ayungin Shoal, GMA News Online. Available at: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/933120/west-ph-sea-china-ph-continue-rore-accord-ayungin-shoal/story/ (Accessed: 11 February 2026).

⁴ Del Callar, M. (2025) West PH Sea: China, PH agree to continue RoRe accord for Ayungin Shoal.

⁵ Ibid.

⁶ AMTI (2024) Shifting tactics at Second Thomas shoal, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Available at: https://amti.csis.org/shifting-tactics-at-second-thomas-shoal/ (Accessed: 22 February 2026).

⁷ Gomez, J. (2025) Philippine forces deliver supplies and personnel to disputed South China Sea Shoal despite tensions, AP News. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/philippines-second-thomas-shoal-south-china-sea-9f1b2234a57a607a6dbb15afc1364380 (Accessed: 06 February 2026).

⁸ Mangosing, F. (2025) Philippine military reports surge in Chinese activity at Second Thomas shoal, Naval News. Available at: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/08/philippine-military-reports-surge-in-chinese-activity-at-second-thomas-shoal/ (Accessed: 28 January 2026).

⁹ Sadongdong, M. (2026) PCG deploys ships to protect fishermen in BDM, escoda shoal amid fresh chinese ‘harassment’, Manila Bulletin. Available at: https://mb.com.ph/2026/03/01/pcg-deploys-ships-to-protect-fishermen-in-bdm-escoda-shoal-amid-fresh-chinese-harassment (Accessed: 06 January 2026).

¹⁰ Ibid.

¹¹ McCartney, M. (2026) Chinese military accused of jamming Starlink in South China Sea, Newsweek. Available at: https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-military-accused-jamming-starlink-south-china-sea-11573066 (Accessed: 05 March 2026).

¹² Lee-Brago, P. (2026) NSA: Transparency to counter Chinese Gray Zone Tactics, Philstar. Available at: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/03/03/2511609/nsa-transparency-counter-chinese-gray-zone-tactics (Accessed: 11 February 2026).

¹³ Corrales, N. (2025) Resupply mission to Philippine troops in disputed shoal completed without Chinese harassment, Asia News Network. Available at: https://asianews.network/resupply-mission-to-philippine-troops-in-disputed-shoal-completed-without-chinese-harassment/ (Accessed: 12 February 2026).

¹⁴ Alegre, P. (2025) Explore Pacific Forum's insightful Indo-Pacific analysis, Pacific Forum. Available at: https://pacforum.org/publications/yl-blog-130-manilas-transparency-initiative-a-strategy-for-deterrence/ (Accessed: 19 February 2026).