Future Plans for Philippines Resupply Missions at Ayungin Shoal

Article by James Salazar

Published on March 11, 2026 07:47 PM

The Philippines has firmly committed to continuing its routine Rotation and Resupply (RoRe) missions to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas) under the existing "Provisional Understanding" with China, regardless of increased Chinese vessel presence in the area. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and the National Maritime Council (NMC) have repeatedly stated that there are no plans to adjust or alter the frequency, nature, or implementation of these missions, describing them as a "moral obligation" and a sovereign right. ¹

Continuity Under the "Provisional Understanding"

The operational framework for future missions remains the July 2024 Provisional Understanding, which both Manila and Beijing agreed to continue implementing indefinitely as of January 2025. Despite reports of surging Chinese activity, including collisions between Chinese vessels and the deployment of armed fast boats, Philippine officials insist the agreement remains intact and effective in preventing "untoward incidents". ²

The future operational plan will outline several key components intended to guide strategic implementation, strengthen inter-agency coordination, and ensure the systematic execution of operational activities, as follows:

• Unchanged Frequency. Missions will continue on their established schedule, typically occurring every two (2) months, to ensure the welfare of the marine contingent stationed on the grounded vessel. ³

• No Concessions on Sovereignty. The government emphasizes that these are lawful, routine humanitarian operations undertaken in the exercise of Philippine sovereignty and jurisdiction, not subject to Chinese approval or negotiation.⁴

• Contingency Planning. While the public stance is one of continuity, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año and NMC Executive Director Carlos Lopez have indicated that the Philippines has "plans for any eventuality" should China violate the understanding or escalate harassment, though specific details of these contingencies remain undisclosed. ⁵

Response to Increased Chinese Presence

Future missions will be conducted against a backdrop of heightened Chinese surveillance, harassments, disruption, and presence. In August 2025, the Philippines noted a spike in Chinese Coast Guard and militia vessels near the shoal, which officials attributed to Beijing’s attempt to "manage optics" following internal incidents (such as collisions between Chinese ships) rather than a change in the agreement itself. ⁶

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has stated it is ready to respond to any return of aggressive tactics, such as the water-cannoning and ramming seen in early 2024 and 2025. The AFP continues to coordinate closely with the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) to ensure the safety of personnel and supplies during transit. ⁷

Strategic Outlook: Transparency and Preparedness

Looking ahead, the Philippine strategy combines diplomatic continuity with operational vigilance. The DFA continues to hold talks with its Chinese counterpart to address any ambiguities or alleged violations that arise during specific missions. Simultaneously, the government maintains that filing a new arbitral case remains an option if China’s actions fundamentally violate the provisional arrangement or Philippine sovereign rights. ⁸

The overarching goal is to sustain the status quo that has allowed for seven (7) consecutive undisturbed missions as of April 2025, while preparing for potential disruptions. As NMC Executive Director Lopez stated, the Philippines will proceed with resupply missions "regardless of any threat," underscoring a resolve to maintain its presence at Ayungin Shoal irrespective of external pressure. ⁹

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Notes:

¹ Nepomuceno, P. (2023) RoRe missions to Ayungin Shoal to continue 'regardless of any threat', Philippine News Agency. Available at: https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1257319 (Accessed: 01 March 2026).

²Geducos, A. (2025) DFA: Ayungin resupply missions to continue under provisional understanding, Manila Bulletin. Available at: https://mb.com.ph/2025/08/23/dfa-ayungin-resupply-missions-to-continue-under-provisional-understanding (Accessed: 01 March 2026).

³ Chi, C. (2025) Seventh undisturbed resupply mission to Ayungin completed on day of valor, Philstar. Available at: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2025/04/10/2434962/seventh-undisturbed-resupply-mission-ayungin-completed-day-valor (Accessed: 01 March 2026).

⁴ Geducos, A. (2025) DFA: Ayungin resupply missions to continue under provisional understanding, Manila Bulletin.

⁵ Manahan, J. (2025) Ph must prepare for any eventualities as China ramps up activities in Ayungin, ABS-CBN news. Available at: https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/8/23/ph-must-prepare-for-any-eventualities-as-china-ramps-up-activities-in-ayungin-analysts-1535 (Accessed: 01 March 2026).

⁶ Geducos, A. (2025) Ph won't adjust Ayungin resupply missions despite increased Chinese presence - NMC, Manila Bulletin. Available at: https://mb.com.ph/2025/09/01/ph-wont-adjust-ayungin-resupply-missions-despite-increased-chinese-presence-nmc (Accessed: 01 March 2026).

⁷ Serquiña, M. (2025) AFP ready should Chinese vessels return to Ayungin Shoal, GMA News Online. Available at: https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1257319 (Accessed: 02 March 2026).

⁸ Geducos, A. (2025) Ph won't adjust Ayungin resupply missions despite increased Chinese presence – NMC.

⁹ Nepomuceno, P. (2023) RoRe missions to Ayungin Shoal to continue 'regardless of any threat'.