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China Keeps Expanding. So Why Can't It Erase the Philippines' Legal Case?

Article by Marie D.

Published on July 17, 2026 12:00PM



MANILA — A decade after the arbitral tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) struck down China’s sweeping nine-dash line claims in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea, the Philippines continues to insist the ruling remains binding, even as Beijing expands its physical presence in the said waters. The anniversary has drawn fresh attention to the 2016 decision, which Manila has hailed and which 14 countries backed this month in a joint statement. ¹ ⁸


For the Philippines, the issue is not just legal but immediate -- access to fishing grounds, the security of its maritime patrols, and the protection of features it calls parts of the West Philippine Sea. In recent weeks, Manila has again challenged Chinese activity at Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), after reporting a new structure there and later confirming the removal of a floating platform. ² ³


The Chinese side, however, continues to present the shoal as part of its own territory and to frame its actions as administrative or scientific. That position has not changed even as Philippine officials insist that the shoal lies within the country’s exclusive economic zone and that only the Philippines has the authority to permit activity there. ³ ⁴


Manila’s fishing grounds


For the fishermen from Bajo de Masinloc in Zambales, the dispute is not an abstract legal battle but a practical one measured in lost catches and blocked access. Reuters reported this week that Filipino fishermen are increasingly afraid to go out to Scarborough Shoal because of harassment by Chinese vessels, despite the area’s long-standing importance as a traditional fishing ground. ⁵


That report reinforces what Philippine officials have argued for years. The arbitral award did not create the country’s rights, but affirmed them under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The ruling said China had no legal basis to claim historic rights to resources in waters beyond its lawful entitlements, a conclusion that Manila and its allies continue to invoke on the ruling’s anniversary. ⁸ ⁹


The Philippines has also kept up diplomatic pressure through multilateral channels. In January, Reuters reported that Manila, as ASEAN chair, was pushing for a South China Sea code of conduct explicitly anchored in UNCLOS and made it legally enforceable. That effort reflects a broader Philippine strategy. Preserve legal arguments, keep allies engaged, and prevent unilateral changes from being normalized as facts on the water. ⁷ ¹⁰


Control on the water


The contrast between law and reality remains stark around Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) and in the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratly Islands), where China has turned several reef systems into fortified outposts over the past decade. Reuters described Chinese patrols, barriers, and other measures around Scarborough Shoal earlier this year, underscoring how control has increasingly rested on presence rather than legal title. ¹²


At the same time, the Philippines has pushed back against the idea that Beijing’s construction and patrols amount to settled sovereignty. Manila’s position, repeated in recent Reuters reporting, is that China’s claim to the entire sea has no legal basis and that coercive actions violate regional commitments and international law. ³ ⁶


The stakes are especially high because the dispute now affects not only one shoal but the wider maritime map of the West Philippine Sea, including waters near Palawan and routes used by Philippine civilian and security forces. The 2016 ruling is still the central legal reference point for Manila, even if enforcement has proved elusive. ¹ ⁷


Regional backing


Manila has not been alone in keeping the award alive. On the 10th anniversary of the ruling, the United States, the Philippines, Japan and 11 other countries issued a joint statement saying China’s expansive maritime claims have no legal basis and that the arbitral award is final, legally binding, and definitive between China and the Philippines. ¹ ⁷


That statement matters because it shows the Philippines has managed to turn a bilateral legal victory into a wider rules-based argument supported by partners beyond Southeast Asia. It also highlights how far the dispute has moved from a purely legal forum to a test of regional alignment and maritime security. ⁷


Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro recently told CNBC that the Philippines faces a long-term struggle with China over territory, while warning against further encroachment and artificial-island building. The message from Manila remains consistent, the award stands, the waters remain an issue, and the Philippines will keep asserting its rights in Bajo de Masinloc, Palawan-facing waters, and the rest of the West Philippine Sea. ⁵ ⁷ ¹¹

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Notes: ¹ APNEWS. Philippines commemorates 2016 South China Sea ruling rejected by Beijing. https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-disputes-arbitration-ruling-d0148a4175f80eedf70dcf2696f03ddd


² Reuters. Philippines probes possible new structure at disputed Scarborough Shoal. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-probes-possible-new-structure-disputed-scarborough-shoal-2026-06-03/


³ Reuters. Philippines urges China to remove shoal structure, warns against island-building. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-urges-china-remove-new-structure-disputed-shoal-south-china-sea-2026-06-10/



⁵ Reuters. A decade after historic ruling, Philippine fishermen say driven away from disputed shoal by China https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/decade-after-historic-ruling-philippine-fishermen-say-driven-away-disputed-shoal-2026-07-10/


⁶ Reuters. Philippines rejects Beijing's claim to sovereignty over entire South China Sea. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-rejects-beijings-claim-sovereignty-over-south-china-sea-2026-03-16/


⁷ US Department of State. Joint Statement on the Tenth Anniversary of the Philippines-China South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award. https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/joint-statement-on-the-tenth-anniversary-of-the-philippines-china-south-china-sea-arbitral-tribunal-award/


⁸ Reuters. South China Sea joint statement says China's maritime claims have no basis. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/south-china-sea-joint-statement-says-chinas-maritime-claims-have-no-basis-2026-07-12/


⁹ APNEWS. Philippines commemorates 2016 South China Sea ruling rejected by Beijing. https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-disputes-arbitration-ruling-d0148a4175f80eedf70dcf2696f03ddd


¹⁰ Reuters. Philippines will insist South China Sea code is based on international law. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-will-insist-south-china-sea-code-is-based-international-law-foreign-2026-01-22/


¹¹ CNBC. Asia-Pacific News The Philippines is in for a 'long-term struggle' with China over territory, Manila's defense secretary tells CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/30/philippines-in-for-struggle-with-china-on-territory-defense-secretary.html



 
 
 

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